Already 1% of the Latvian car fleet is electric

On July 1, 7549 electric cars were registered in Latvia, which means that a symbolic threshold has been exceeded in Latvia - every hundredth car on Latvian roads is completely electric.

Purchase support has been available in Latvia for more than 2 years when purchasing a new or used electric car, and recently it has been supplemented, providing support of up to €9000. The statistics show the bubble created by the subsidy, which has allowed skeptics to speculate that the demand for electric cars is falling, even though the number of quarterly registrations is the second largest in Latvia's history.

2024 were registered in Latvia on July 1 7549 electric cars (BEV) (+48% compared to the previous year (YoY)), 122 electric buses (+97%), 249 electric trucks (+65%), 42 electric quadricycles (-2%), 916 electric mopeds (- 12%) and 161 electric motorcycles (+55%). Together are registered in Latvia 9039 electric vehicles (+ 48%).

2024st quarter of 2 new electric car registrations broken down in more detail:

• BEV: 333 registrations (-36% YoY, 6.8% quarterly registrations) (+ 343 used + 16 light trucks (13 new + 3 used))
• PHICEV*: 145 registrations (+ 27 %, 2.9%)
• Total: 478 (-25%, 9.8%)

*PHICEV – (abbreviation from English) plug-in hybrid internal combustion engine vehicle. Uzlādēts.lv no longer uses the terms PHEV or HEV.

The bubble has burst

Kovid, semiconductors, the war in Ukraine and with it energy resources, the economic crisis and the subsequent rise of the eiribor replaced each other, giving no respite to car manufacturers. If in the 2023nd quarter of 2 was registered record number of new cars, then at the moment, as in the auto industry in general, it can be observed globally that new cars are being bought at around 2019 levels and a short-term decline is predicted. The decline is also reinforced by the fact that we are currently in the process of changing from internal combustion to electric drive.

It is expected that this year the registrations of new electric cars will be artificially slowed down until January 1, because similar to what happened in 2020, new CO regulations for manufacturers come into force on January 1₂ emission limits that are more stringent. Accordingly, the importance of new electric cars sold to manufacturers will be greater in a few months than it is now. Except, of course, for those who do not have a single car in the offer that would generate direct CO₂ emissions.

At this point, it can be observed that the subsidies had created a hump on the exponential growth, which hastened to be slowed down by the various crises that we have experienced since they were announced. This year's first quarter registrations were the worst in two years (since Q2022 3).

If we look deeper, we are back to the situation where new and used electric cars come in equally large quantities (used ones are even finally starting to overtake), but the increase since 2022. the end was based mainly on the new machines.

With the final EU decision on banning of internal combustion engine machines from 2035, for the young Euro 7 emission standards and stricter emission standards, which will be in force from 2025. January 1, we can expect that the statistics of electric cars in Latvia will also jump to the dominant position among new cars in a few years and around 2030. it will be more interesting to observe the disappearance of the plug-in hybrid (as the last representative of the internal combustion engine) from the statistics.

After for ACEA data 2023 fully electric cars (BEV) occupied 14.6% of the European Union new car market and plug-in hybrids (PHICEV) – 7.7%, total – 22.3%. If we also include plug-in hybrids (HICEVs), in total EU electrified cars accounted for 48.1% of the new car market. In other words, almost half of the cars were electrified, more than every 5th car was rechargeable and every 7th car was purely electric. Meanwhile, in 2024 In the first half of the year in Europe, BEVs and PHICEVs accounted for 1% ​​and 12.5% of new car registrations respectively, while HICEVs accounted for 6.9%.

Quarterly newcomers

In this quarter, 10 more BEVs - FIAT 600e - FIAT XNUMXe, which have not been seen in Latvia until now, were registered in Latvia. Photon Auman, Lotus Eletre, Maserati Grecale Folgore, MG MG4, MG MG5, MINI Countryman SE, Peugeot e3008, Renault Scenic, KGM (SsangYoung) Torres EVX.

Currently, there are two most popular electric cars in Latvia - Nissan Leaf, which gained 24 registrations this quarter, and BMW i3, which got 30 registrations. However, the most popular electric car of the quarter was the GWM ORA 03 with 65 registrations, followed by Tesla Model Y (51 registrations), Audi e-tron/Q8 e-tron (48) a Tesla Model 3 (41)

Among new cars in the previous quarter, petrol still dominated with 67.9% of the market, diesel – 20.6%, electric – 6.8% (9.7% including PHICEV) and gas 0.0% (1.7% including petrol hybrid). However, light commercial vehicles have to catch up. There, the picture is still sad – diesel dominated with 96.1% of the market, gasoline occupied 2.3%, electricity – 1.2% and gas 0.3% (0.4% together with gasoline hybrid).

At the moment it may not look realistic, but considering that the EC has decided that new registrations of internal combustion engines will no longer be allowed, we can assume that between 2026 and 2030 electric cars will dominate both light passenger and light commercial vehicles.

Forecasts

For comparison – There are currently 13 electric cars in Lithuania un There are 6967 electric cars in Estonia. Taking into account the "reliability" of the Lithuanian data, we can conclude that Latvia does not stand out among the Baltic states either for better or for worse.

Since we have reached the symbolic 1% of the car fleet, we can already look at the next beautiful goal - 5% (~36'500). The exponential trend curve over the data of previous years predicts that there will be 36 electric cars between 500. and 2027

We can only guess how many electric cars will be registered in Latvia in 2030, but the list below summarizes some of the guesses:

• Latvenergo – 60 (000% of the fleet)
• Eleport – 100'000 (13.7%)
• Neste – 73'000 (10%)
• Enefit – 16'000 (2.1%)
• Auto Association – 73'000 (10%)
• Ministry of Transport* – 32'000 (4,4%) (*presentation in 2022)
• Latvian National Development Plan* – 14'570 (2%) (*in 2027)
• Exponential curve – 61'000-150'000 (8.3%-20.5%)
• Constant 71% (average of the last 4 quarters) increase – 158'000 (21.8%)

In the survey organized by Uzladėts.lv, about Latvian electric car of the year, 45% answered that they think that in 2030 Latvia will have between 25 and 000 electric cars. 50% thought that there would be between 000 and 22 and another 50% believed that there would be more than 000 electric cars in Latvia at that time.

Which forecast to believe? Reality is almost always better than what the exponential curve predicts. For example, the exponential curve predicted a year ago, that in 2030 there will be 46'000 electric cars, and a year earlier – 30'000. The changes over the years are remarkable. A constant 70% increase is unlikely to materialize, but the trends of previous years suggest that it will be better than Latvenergo's forecast and much better than what Enefit said.