A record number of electric cars has been registered in Latvia

On October 1 of this year, 8374 electric cars were registered in Latvia, which makes up a little more than 1% of the total national car park.

For more than 3 years, purchase support has been available in Latvia for the purchase of a new or used electric car, and recently it has been supplemented, providing up to 11 EUR support. The statistics show the early bubble created by the subsidies, which allowed skeptics to speculate that the demand for electric cars is falling, even though the number of electric car registrations in the third quarter of this year is the highest in Latvia's history.

2024 were registered in Latvia on October 1 8374 electric cars (BEV) (+45% compared to the previous year (YoY)), 128 electric buses (+83%), 276 electric trucks (+53%), 47 electric quadricycles (+12%), 953 electric mopeds (+ 14%) and 170 electric motorcycles (+38%). Together are registered in Latvia 9948 electric vehicles (+ 42%).

2024 3rd quarter electric car registrations broken down in more detail:

• BEV: 347 registrations (-16% YoY, 8% quarterly registrations) (+478 used +42 light trucks (15 new + 27 used))
• PHICEV*: 208 registrations (+ 119 %, 5%)
• Total: 555 (+9%, 13%)

*PHICEV – (abbreviation from English) plug-in hybrid internal combustion engine vehicle. Uzlādēts.lv no longer uses the terms PHEV or HEV.

The bubble has burst

Kovid, semi-conductors, the war in Ukraine and thus the energy and economic crisis followed by the rise of the eiribor replaced each other, giving no respite to car manufacturers and buyers. If it was registered in the 2023nd quarter of 2 record number of new cars, then at the moment, as in the auto industry in general, it can be observed globally that the new cars are bought in the amount of around 2019 and a short-term decline is predicted. The decline is also reinforced by the fact that we are currently in the process of changing from internal combustion to electric drive.

It can now be observed that the subsidies had created a hump on the exponential growth (see above), which was hastened to slow down by the various crises we experienced since they were announced. The first quarter of this year registrations are the worst since Q2022 4. At the same time, it can be observed that sales volumes of new electric cars are starting to recover and, including plug-in hybrids (PHICEVs), are even on a positive trend, although not at a record high.

If we look deeper into electric car registrations, we are back to the healthy situation where used electric cars enter Latvia in larger quantities than new ones. Growth since 2022 towards the end was based mostly on the new machines. Another interesting nuance - PHICEV is starting to gain popularity. This is not surprising, given that their potential range on a single charge is starting to reach the level of battery electric cars, as it was in 2012…

At the moment, it can be observed that diesel cars are also losing popularity in the used car segment (-12% compared to last September). On the other hand, there is an increase in the registrations of vehicles using other types of fuel and energy. Gasoline passenger car registrations are up 2%, electric cars +60% and plug-in hybrids (PHICEV) +141%.

This year, similar to 2020, new electric car registrations are expected to be artificially slowed down across Europe until January 1st, as new COs come into force on January 1st₂ emission limits for manufacturers that are stricter Accordingly, the importance of new electric cars sold to manufacturers will be greater in a few months than it is now. Except, of course, for those who do not have a single car in the offer that would generate direct CO₂ emissions.

Along with the EU decision on banning of internal combustion engine machines from 2035, for the young Euro 7 emission standards and stricter emission standards for car manufacturers, which will be effective from 2025. January 1, we can expect that the statistics of electric cars in Latvia will jump up to the dominant among new cars in a few years and around 2030. it will be more interesting to observe the disappearance of the plug-in hybrid (as the last representative of the internal combustion engine) from the statistics. Kind of like it is in Norway at the moment.

After installing for ACEA data 2023 fully electric cars (BEV) occupied 14.6% of the European Union new car market and plug-in hybrids (PHICEV) – 7.7%, total – 22.3%. If we also include plug-in hybrids (HICEVs), in total EU electrified cars accounted for 48.1% of the new car market. In other words, almost half of the cars were electrified, more than every 5th car was rechargeable and every 7th car was purely electric. Meanwhile, in 2024 until August in Europe, BEVs and PHICEVs accounted for 12.6% and 7.0% of new car registrations respectively, while HICEVs accounted for 29.8%.

Quarterly newcomers and leaders

In this quarter, 12 BEVs that have not yet been seen in Latvia were registered in Latvia - Audi Q6 etron, BYD Tang, Chevrolet Bolt, Cupra Tavascan, Ford Explorer, Ford F150 Lightning, KGM Torres EVX, KGM Korando e-Motion, Mercedes-Benz EQT, peugeot e5008, Porsche Macan, Volkswagen Transporter.

in October BMW i3 with 41 registrations, regained its undivided leading position and became the most popular electric car in the Latvian fleet. Nissan Leaf, which got 33 registrations this quarter, is the second most popular electric car. However, the most popular electric car of the quarter was Tesla Model 3 with 120 registrations followed Audi e-tron/Q8 e-tron (49), BMW i3 (41), Tesla Model Y (37) and Nissan Leaf (33).

Among new cars in the previous quarter, petrol still dominated with 66% of the market, diesel – 19%, electric – 8% (13% including PHICEV) and gas 0% (2% including petrol hybrid). However, light commercial vehicles have to catch up. There, the picture is still sad – diesel dominated with 94% of the market, gasoline occupied 4%, electricity – 2% and gas 0% (0% together with gasoline hybrid).

At the moment it may not look realistic, but considering that the EC has decided that new registrations of internal combustion engines will no longer be allowed, we can assume that between 2026 and 2030 electric cars will dominate both light passenger and light commercial vehicles.

Forecasts

For comparison – There are currently 14 electric cars in Lithuania un There are 7254 electric cars in Estonia. Taking into account the "reliability" of the Lithuanian data, we can conclude that Latvia does not stand out among the Baltic states either for better or for worse.

Since we have crossed the symbolic "1% of the car fleet" threshold, we can already look at the next beautiful goal - 5% (~36). The exponential trend curve over the data of previous years predicts that there will be 000 electric cars between 36. and 000

We can only guess how many electric cars will be registered in Latvia in 2030, but the list below summarizes some of the guesses:

• Latvenergo – 60 (000% of the fleet)
• Eleport – 100 (000%)
• Neste – 72 (000%)
• Enefit – 16 (000%)
• Auto Association – 72 (000%)
• Ministry of Transport* – 32 (000%) (*4 presentation)
• Latvian National Development Plan* – 14 (400%) (*2)
• Exponential curve – 63-000 (140%-000%)
• Steady 65% ​​(average of last 4 quarters) growth – 127 (000%)

In the survey organized by Uzlādēts.lv, about Latvian electric car of the year, 45% answered that they think that in 2030 Latvia will have between 25'000 and 50'000 electric cars. 22% thought that there would be between 50'000 and 100'000 and another 16% believed that there would be more than 100'000 electric cars in Latvia at that time.

Which forecast to believe? Reality is almost always better than what the most pessimistic exponential curve predicts. For example, the exponential curve predicted a year ago, that in 2030 there will be 51 electric cars, and a year earlier – 34. Changes over the years are significant. A constant 000% increase is unlikely to materialize, but the trends of previous years suggest that it will be better than Latvenergo's forecast and much better than what Enefit said.